Asian Studies

Its Chinas world.  Were just living in it, says Newsweek last month.  While the rest of the world is still suffering through the effects of the 2008 financial crisis, China is continuing to experience double-digit growth.  Meanwhile, India is following at a distance, like a woman running after a man.  Indeed, BusinessWeek was blatantly wrong when it predicted last July 2008 that India will beat China.  Without any doubt, even though India may be an emerging power, China is expected to be the superpower of the 21st century.  In terms of governance, philosophy, organizational leadership, military strength, innovation, technology, economic power and social stability, China is way ahead of India, and experts anticipate the gap to grow wider in the coming decades.

First, the Chinese authoritarian government is superior to Indias democratic regime.  BusinessWeek believes that Indias democratic form of government will ultimate lead them to success over a dictatorial Chinese government.  But in reality, Indias democracy is schizophrenic.  It has so many personalities representing numerous sectors fighting against each other that it is basically impossible for it to move as one body.  On the other hand, while the personality of Chinas government may be autistic, it is more united, and as Fareed Zakaria of Newsweek and CNN has noticed, unlike many democracies in the world such as the EU or India, Chinas government can do tasks such as development or crisis intervention much faster.

One of the reasons why many analysts fail in their predictions is because they think that all people want the same thing and are all essentially the same people, but they are not.  Rodney St.Michael in Sync My World Thiefs Honor GA SK asserts that all systems in the world are created based on the creators gendermale, female, lesbian, gay and bisexual.  And in the case of the Yellows like the Chinese, they prefer a male system.  The Browns, on the other hand, like the Indians, prefer a female or bisexual system. And just as males have different preferences over females and bisexuals, the Yellows, especially the Chinese, are very different from everyone else in the world and do not have the same values as everyone else, especially the Western value of democracy.  This is very evident in first-world Chinese Singapore where Western media has severely criticized Lee Kuan Yew for being a decades-long authoritarian, while the same media cannot understand why the Singaporean people approve of it and support it.  As Rodney St.Michael believes, America prizes a gay or bisexual form of democracy, while China loves a straight or male authoritarian system.  It is not possible for everyone to love the same system, just as the genders all have different preferences.  Another factor in prediction failures is the Western medias desire to push for their own interests against an unfriendly China and a friendlier India that satisfies their fantasy of winning over them instead of analyzing what the actual and factual circumstances are.

From these premises, it becomes easy to understand the other differences between India and China as emerging powers.  In terms of religion or philosophy, for instance, Chinas Confucianism and Taoism play important roles in government and are not really religions as it is defined in the West.  They are more of philosophies and are more tame and peaceful.  Even Tibetan Buddhism, which is practiced even in Beijing where various temples flourish, is relatively tranquil.  In contrast, Indias diverse religions are the ingredients for a terror zone similar to that of the Middle Easts, and it is a deterrent to any prospects of becoming a real superpower.  Hundreds of Indian Muslims and Hindus, for example, die regularly in riots against each other.  Hindus also burn Catholic nuns alive or rape them as they did last August 2008.  This also makes it easier for foreign Muslim terrorists to blend in and create havoc in Bombay, such as in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks.  Any Tibetan or Uyghur uprising in China pales in comparison to India.

Furthermore, Chinese involvement in international organizations and events is more solid than Indias.  China is creating stronger ties with south-east Asian nations via the ASEAN3.  And while India and China are both members of the G20, China is aiming to play a bigger role by pushing for a new world currency.  China is holding all the cards  and it knows that, says INGs Tim Condon (BBC News).  It also hosted the 2008 summer Olympic Games, and it will be hosting the World Expo in Shanghai from May to October 2010.  China also has relatively closer ties with South America and Africa.

Moreover, Chinas armed forces are much stronger than Indias.  China has the largest standing army.  It has the 2nd largest defense budget in the world.  When China warned the United Nations of an impending arms race in space due to the American development of a space-based missile-defense system, the Bush administration downplayed it.  So, the Chinese tested its anti-satellite missiles and successfully destroyed one of its aging satellites last 2007.  This scared the American government since China apparently has the ability to destroy U.S. spy satellites and missile-defense systems.  In my view, the Chinese are sending a strong signal here, says the president of a nonprofit space and defense Washington think tank. Theyre saying they can hold our space-based, war-fighting capability at risk, and are putting into doubt our ability to challenge them. Theyre a rising space competitor (The Washington Post).  In contrast, India does not show any signs of challenging America.  While it may have developed nuclear weapons recently to keep up with Pakistan, China has been a nuclear power for many decades.  It has Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles, and last year, in its attempts to build goodwill by increasing transparency (The Guardian) it disclosed its nuclear submarines, revealing what seemed to be a secret for many years.  Since decades ago, China has been capable of launching a nuclear attack and destroying the entire United States, much like Russia.  Chinas newer longer-range missile systems will reach many areas of the world...including virtually the entire continental United States, declares a senior analyst with the Washington-based British American Security Information Council (Asia Times).   The Shanghai Cooperation Organization with Russia and Central Asian nations is also the new NATO of the East.  On the other hand, Indias current nuclear technology is incapable of reaching the United States.  In fact, Indias own nuclear scientists say that the 1998 India nuclear tests did not work (BBC News).  And while India landed an unmanned lunar probe in 2008, which was cut short in 2009 after a sensor malfunctioned (Reuters), China will be sending a manned mission to the moon in 2013, attempting to surpass the United States by harnessing Helium-3, a new energy source found on the lunar surface. 

And in terms of economic growth, China is undoubtedly leading India.  China is expected to surpass the United States by 2027.  It is currently experiencing double-digit growth again while America remains stagnant or in decline.  It is now the worlds largest car market and the worlds largest exporter.  It also owns the worlds largest foreign reserves at 2.4 trillion dollars as of 2009.  It also has the most number of internet users and about one hundred automobile manufacturers.  It is also now the leader in green energy investments, surpassing the United States in 2009.  China is emerging as the worlds clean energy powerhouse (New York Times). In contrast, the Indian economy only grew by about 6 last year.  Their infrastructure continues to remain poor compared to Chinas.  Their green energy investments lag behind many leading nations.  Their car industry is only the 9th largest in the world, trailing far behind China which is the first.  Indian foreign reserves are only the fifth in the world at 279 billion dollars as of March 2010.

Lastly, in terms of basic needs, India is still behind China.  Potable drinking water is still hard to find in India, and many are still living in terrible poverty.  The average Chinese is still better off than the average Indian.  While China has controlled its population through its one-child policy, Indias population is still booming with children.  While this may enable them to have many young workers, most of them will be struggling to survive as they face stiff competition from other young people as they fight for scarce resources.

In the end, it is clear that while India may be an emerging power, China will likely be the superpower that will surpass the United States in a few decades from now.  Whether one likes it or not, it will become Chinas world.  And everyone will have to comply with the Mandate of Heaven.